Comparison of 2006 NCAA Men's BB Tournament results as predicted by different ranking systems.

Each ranking system's predictions are compared using the standard office pool scoring (1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 - 32).

  Pomeroy
Ratings
Sagarin
ELO
Sagarin
Predictor

Simpson
(adjusted)

Score
(192 possible):
63
59
59
64
59
55
67
59
64
49
56
# correct
(out of 63):
38
37
37
39
37
34
39
38 40
32
33
Predicted
Final Four:
Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Kansas
UConn
Villanova
Kansas
Texas
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova

Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova

Duke
Memphis
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Kansas
UConn
Villanova
Duke
Kansas
UNC
Villanova
Duke
UCLA
UNC
Villanova
Predicted Finalists:
Duke
UConn
Duke
UConn
Duke
UConn
Duke
UConn
Texas
UConn
Duke
Villanova
Duke
UConn
Duke
UConn
Duke
UConn
Duke
Villanova
Duke
UNC
Predicted Champion:
Duke
UConn
UConn
Duke
Texas
Duke
Duke
UConn
Duke
Duke
UNC

White = High Score, Red = Incorrect Pick

(All values for the vaious ranking systems were collected before the NCAA tournament began.
Those sites that continue to update throughout the tournament may not still agree with the orginal data.)

 
Ouch! I guess I can take solace in the fact that I was the only system to get even one of the Fianl Four teams.